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# It Could Be Nice
- URL: https://pulpconversations.com/it-could-be-nice/
- Published: 2025-08-05T00:34:50.000Z
- Updated: 2026-08-25T22:06:21.000Z
- Description: ... if you invested in bitcoin 10 years ago but even better if you did in November 2022
- Author: Vinay Gupta
- Tags: Podcast, #Migrated-1787171093388, #Import 2026-08-19 16:25

The above chart details the volume-weighted-cost-basis of bitcoin purchased in the years: 2015, 2020 and 2025.

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![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/67/42/67423e8e-d1c5-4288-976a-2d7a9b94e567/content/images/2026/08/d21ff4d3-540a-4f60-9e94-6fff34edd84e_1182x866.png)

As of 3 August 2025, bitcoin is hovering at $113,000 and almost everyone who has bought into it since 2009 is `in profit`.

> Let that sink in.

#### Let’s assume someone bought $100,000 worth of bitcoin in 2015.

Today that investment would be worth \~$633,000

#### Let’s assume someone bought $100,000 worth of bitcoin in 2020.

Today that investment would be worth \~$299,000

#### Let’s assume someone bought $100,000 worth of bitcoin in 2025.

Today that investment would be worth \~$113,000

---

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/67/42/67423e8e-d1c5-4288-976a-2d7a9b94e567/content/images/2026/08/8ae3c6b8-bf4c-45a3-843e-2622b2efec17_300x167.gif)

## Huh?

**When coins bought in 2015 are spent (sold or moved) in later years at much higher prices, the cost basis for the “2015 cohort” is recalculated upward; potentially far above the historical prices of 2015.**

Essentially, the cost basis for each coin becomes the last price it moved at, no matter when that occurs …

- Let’s say someone bought Bitcoin in 2015 at $400\. They held it until 2021, then moved or sold it when the price reached $50,000\. The on-chain accounting **assigns that $50,000 price as the “cost basis” for that particular unit of Bitcoin; retroactively updating the 2015 cohort’s cost basis**.

If many people who bought in 2015 only moved or sold their coins in a much later, higher-priced bull market, the average cost basis for the “2015 supply” surges, despite the 2015 market price being orders of magnitude lower.

## Important Concepts:

- **The yearly cost basis is a rolling, dynamic metric.** It’s not a simple average or a static figure from that specific calendar year.
- **It is a function of when and at what price the coins last moved.** As older coins are spent at new, higher prices, the earlier year’s cost basis metric “re-rates” to modern price levels.

---

*\_checkonchain* uses these “cost basis by vintage” charts to illustrate the long-term behavior of different investor cohorts and to show at what prices historical holders are actually exiting, rather than the prices they entered.

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/67/42/67423e8e-d1c5-4288-976a-2d7a9b94e567/content/images/2026/08/e613e52f-f691-41c4-bc29-d05ce85d295d_480x370.gif)

## So what about that orange goat?

On November 9, 2022 during the FTX-induced bear market, bitcoin briefly dipped to $15,758 - which is lower than than the 2015 volume weighted cost basis of $17,785.

#### Let’s assume someone bought $100,000 worth of bitcoin on 9 Nov. 22

Today that investment would be worth \~$714,000 even outperforming the typical investor from 2015.

## The morals of this story

1. You are not too late → the typical investor in 2025 is up 13% - not too shabby.
2. Some long-term investors who bought bitcoin in November 2022 outperformed the typical 2015 investor.
3. `Time in the market` outperforms *timing the market* over the long-run.

##### Charts are from

[\_checkonchain](https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/?r=4bhhh&ref=pulpconversations.com)

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